At its 5 p.m. advisory, the National Hurricane Center extended a tropical storm warning to include all of Lee County, north to Boca Grande.
Previously, Bonita Beach south through Collier County was under a warning and Lee was under a tropical storm watch.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is expected to bring tropical-storm conditions and heavy rain to the Florida Peninsula, including Fort Myers and Lee County, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
Tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued for portions of Florida, including a storm warning in Fort Myers and Lee County, ahead of a possible landfall as Tropical Storm Debby along Florida's West Coast over the weekend.
What was originally known as Invest 97L was located over Cuba, about 360 miles southeast of Key West, according to the 5 p.m. advisory.
A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis Thursday declared a state of emergency for 54 of Florida's 67 counties, including Lee County, ahead of the storm.
➤ Spaghetti models for Potential Tropical Cyclone Four
"Keep in mind the tropical cyclone will be strengthening as it moves north, so the farther north it gets before landfall, the better of a shot that it has to attain hurricane status," said the National Weather Service Tallahassee.
If sustained winds reach 39 mph, it would become Tropical Storm Debby, the fourth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
Where is Potential Tropical Cyclone Four? How close is it to Lee County, Fort Myers, Cape Coral, Florida?
Location: 25 miles west of Camaguey, Cuba; 315 miles southeast of Key West
Maximum sustained winds: 30 mph
Movement: west-northwest at 16 mph
Next advisory: 8 p.m.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Debby, impact parts of Southwest Florida
At 5 p.m., the disturbance was centered near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 78.3 West.
The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph. A turn toward the northwest at a slower forward speed is expected tonight or Saturday, followed by a turn toward the north on Sunday.
On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move over Cuba today, cross the Straits of Florida on Saturday, and then move near or over the west coast of Florida Saturday night through Sunday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph, with higher gusts.
The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical depression on Saturday as it moves across the Straits of Florida, followed by intensification into a tropical storm by Saturday night.
Formation chance through 48 hours: high, 80 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days: high, 90 percent.
Spaghetti models: Latest models on where Potential Tropical Cyclone Four could make Florida landfall
Special note about spaghetti models: Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Tropical storm watches and warnings issued for Collier and Lee County
A tropical storm warning is in effect for:
Southwest coast of the Florida peninsula from East Cape Sable to Boca Grande.
A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for:
The Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge including the Dry Tortugas.
The southern coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape Sable to the Card Sound Bridge.
The west coast of the Florida peninsula north of Boca Grande to the mouth of the Suwanee River.
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Potential impact from tropical cyclone in Southwest Florida include wind, surge, rain tornadoes
WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area late Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula by Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida west coast Saturday night or Sunday.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:
Bonita Beach to Suwanee River: 2-4 feet
Tampa Bay: 2-4 feet
Charlotte Harbor: 2-4 feet
Card Sound Bridge to Bonita Beach: 1-3 feet
RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 12 inches, across portions of Florida and near the Southeast U.S. coast this weekend through Wednesday morning. This rainfall could result in areas of flash and urban flooding, with isolated river flooding possible.
TORNADOES:A tornado or two is possible across the Florida Keys and the western Florida peninsula Saturday night through Sunday morning.
Key messages on what Florida can expect from tropical cyclone
Heavy rainfall may result in flash and urban flooding across portions of Florida and the Southeast this weekend through Wednesday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center. Isolated river flooding will also be possible.
Tropical storm conditions are expected Saturday night within the warning area in southwest Florida from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach where a tropical storm warning has been issued. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Florida Keys on Saturday and along the Florida west coast north of Bonita Beach to Aripeka Saturday night and Sunday where a tropical storm watch is in effect.
Coastal flooding is possible along portions of the west coast of Florida over the weekend.
Residents elsewhere in Florida should monitor the progress of this system.
Florida Gov. DeSantis issues state of emergency for 54 counties, including Lee
Florida is monitoring Invest 97L in the Atlantic, which is expected to strengthen and potentially make landfall as early as this weekend. It will be slow-moving and bring lots of rain that could cause significant flooding.
I encourage all residents to prepare for the storm and…
— Ron DeSantis (@GovRonDeSantis) August 1, 2024
Gov. Ron DeSantis issued a state of emergency Thursday in preparationfor the potential landfall of a stormthat could become the first "significant threat" to the state.
In apost on X Thursday afternoon, DeSantis said "Florida is monitoring Invest 97L in the Atlantic, which is expected to strengthen and potentially make landfall as early as this weekend. It will be slow-moving and bring lots of rain that could cause significant flooding. I encourage all residents to prepare for the storm and follow all guidance issued by@FLSERTand local emergency management officials."
National Weather Service forecasts for Florida, what to expect and when
Rain chances will increase across the Florida Peninsula. Rainfall estimates range from 2 to 4 inches and as high as 8 inches. The strongest storms could produce gusty winds, and heavy downpours. Multiple rounds of heavy downpours could create the potential for localized flooding.
Forecasters urge all residents to continuemonitoring the tropics and to always be prepared. That advice is particularly important for what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Southwest Florida
National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near Fort Myers, Lee County
Excessive rainfall forecast for Fort Myers and Lee
This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: national hurricane center increases odds fort myers lee county impact
